Cryptocurrency Market update – Jun-02-2023
After hitting a low near $26k and reversing to a daily close above $27,100, BTC has been trading mostly sideways in the last four weeks. So far, it has failed to move above the $30k, which hints, the momentum is still to the downside. I remain neutral and abstain from setting a price target for BTC/USD, as there’s no clear cut bullish or bearish trend.
Personally, I’m more inclined to be content with a smaller position and letting the cycle unfold to pick up the full position again at the next weekly cycle Low. We’re in the 2nd half of the 60-day cycle, so a move back to $30k level will reduce the bullish pressure and reposition the cycle to end in a right translated structure.
Not a whole lot of progression here to the bullish side, but given the weekly cycle indecision, there is no more than a 50-50 idea with a potential 2:1 reward to your risk.
Still there is room for that good move higher for both BTC and Ethereum, but of course with the trend remaining down, and the 60-day cycle now up to day-39 already, the message is the same, watch the downside for now.
Looking at the BTC daily chart we see a slight retrace but the bullish narrative for now has held well. Bitcoin’s price is currently consolidating above the $27K level and slightly below the 10-day MA.
We’re in Day-39 of the 60-day cycle, what seems to be a consolidation phase. If BTC can get back to the recent high, it will look a little more bullish. What I see is that, it will test that lower level (making the trade set-up more attractive) before making any significant move up.
For the long term folks, any type of pullback below $25,500 for clarity, I will be buying more spot to hold reaching fully allocated.
The good thing is BTC is holding on well, refusing to fall down into a deeper low into the cycle Low timing band window. But with the time of the current cycle getting deep, one good dip below $25.5k triggers a 60-day range cycle and a clear entry on a reversal.
Chart 1. a slight retrace but the bullish narrative for now has held well. Source: Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
BTC weekly chart shows a decline which suggests that a lower level of the 4-year cycle is still in the cards. This is a classic bull-trap and making a lower low is giving strength to hit another 60-day cycle low before any possible reversal.
Bitcoin’s repeat visit to the sub-$26k range could re-enforce a lengthy sideways consolidation which will leave room for two potential scenarios to unfold. The first scenario is that, BTC could make a straight-jacket return upward that will lead to a right translated cycle. The second scenario is that; it could capitulate further below the 60-day cycle low of last November and then, make a move higher.
So unless this market tells us otherwise, I prefer to sit nice and tight with the right size and give the market the chance to resolve itself higher with the intermediate term trend.
Chart 2. classic bull-trap and making a lower low is giving strength to hit another 60-day cycle low before any possible reversal. Source: Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
Ethereum
The same structure with BTC but a little more bullish. ETH has been relatively strong especially ETH/BTC price action, showing a lot of strength.
ETH/USD has crossed above the immediate hurdle at last week’s high of $1,872, suggesting that the downward pressure has eased a bit. However, ETH/USD needs to break above the May 6 high of 2019 for the downside risks to be eliminated.
Friday’s rally saw the world’s second largest cryptocurrency end a two-day downturn, following a move above $1,900 level in the process.
The next test to see if Ethereum can sustain this momentum will come at the $1,900 ceiling. If passed, there is a good chance that price will hit $2,000 in the coming days.
Chart 3. ETH has been relatively strong especially ETH/BTC price action, showing a lot of strength. Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
