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Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis – 02.09.2022

Despite the choppy price action, Bitcoin managed to remain above $19K, while few of the altcoins are charting gains; albeit not so convincingly. September is historically a bearish month as indicated in the past years, showing that 7 out of the last 9 years had a red close.

The upside in the BTC has been unconvincing at best, suggesting that we may have temporarily peaked at 25k and may not surpass that level any time soon. Momentum indicators remain bearish; add this with the fact that the macro environment is also not supportive.

The path of least resistance remains to the downside with eyes for a test of the $17.5k lows. In recent months, given the hype around Merge for Ethereum, it has felt that Bitcoin has been somewhat left behind which possibly explains why upside in Bitcoin has been hard to come by.

Looking at BTC daily chart we see a consolidation in the declining portion of the cycle, which very often can break down. We’re in day-50 of the 60-day cycle and the 10-day MA trading below the price action is not a good sign of BTC making a big counter trend move soon.

Bitcoin price is experiencing a mid-term consolidation phase and now will be facing a significant level of support at $19K, and this level is the most critical level for the bulls to hold over the next short term.

Still room is for one good move higher especially, if it can break above the recent high around $21k.

Chart 1. BTC consolidating in declining portion of the 60-day cycle low and the price action trading below the 10-day MA.
Source: Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

BTC weekly chart shows trading below the 10-week MA of the cycle low, but the bullish narrative for now has held well. Bitcoin price is currently consolidating above the $19K level even though the trend remains on the downside after sitting on a tight range for six days now.

Looking at the chart, a bullish rally towards $24-25k won’t get approved unless BTC breaks and closes above the trendline. Chances of BTC breaking above the trendline remains a bit high. Let’s not rule out the fact that it could go contrary, leading to a retest of $17.5k level.

Chart 2. Bitcoin currently consolidating above the $19K even though the trend remains on the downside.
Source: , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

Ethereum is holding better and has more relative strength than the BTC. The merger is giving Ethereum some momentum. If this works for bulls, the aim is to target 2k.

If Ethereum can hold on, then watch out for the next move up to the last month’s peak. Our next bullish target is $ 1750 resistance zone. A break above that level would create a resurgence.

Chart 3. Ethereum being stuck inside a consolidation channel near the USD 1,550 level and holding those lows.
Source: , ETHUSD Chart by TradingView