Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis – Dec-3-2024
Bitcoin is holding firm at $94K support, which indicates that, the bulls remain on track to push the price above the psychologically level of $100k.
Bitcoin’s 40% rise in November captured traders’ optimism, fueled by many factors including Trump’s victory at the just finished US election. Yet, despite the rally, BTC failed to breakout from the psychological $100K milestone, closing the month in consolidation mode. A profit-taking spree at $98.5k dampened momentum, leaving traders wondering if Bitcoin can overcome this key resistance.
We haven’t seen a sell off of any size that one would normally expect after a move of 40% within 15-20 days of the first half of this 60-day cycle.
The only caveat here is that, we do have this big 100k psychological number that can take some time to break through. There’s obviously a sell wall there, that will tease us until pretty much the end of the year. It still going to be a right translated cycle, because we’ve got that from the time perspective, still pushing up to the high of the cycle.
The market is very bullish from the cycle point of view and you could see that from some of the altcoins that are now outperforming Bitcoin.
Remain focus, the trend looks strong, everything is playing out to our advantage.
BTC/USD DAILY CHART
BTC daily chart shows BTC/USD, consolidating within the range between $92K and $98K for couple of days now. Bitcoin is just sitting 4-5% off the all-time-high. This is a mid-cycle decline and a further 10-15% decline would still be normal and expected. We could still see that, as we’re sitting near the mid-point of the 60-day cycle (Day-29).
We had a right translated cycle that began in September into the high here on day-54, which was right below the ATH. We had little shakeout before the US election, and this led to the big volume after the election. Taking out those lows would have been ideal, just to reset sentiment and allow more long entries before any major move.
With the $90K support level intact, investors could be hopeful that a bullish breakout and rally above the $100K mark would materialize. Yet, if the $90K level gets broken to the downside, a significant pullback towards the $80K area could be expected.
So, once we’re done with consolidation in the midpoint range, we should break out above the prior high of the cycle or in this case, an ATH. This may likely be in the next 60-day cycle.
Overall, BTC/USD still looks very bullish from the cycle point of view.
Chart 1. BTC consolidating within the range between $92K and $98K this past week and it’s just sitting 4-5% off the all-time-high. Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
BTC/USD WEEKLY CHART
BTC weekly chart, shows that we’ve left behind the 8 months consolidation and we’re now into the 3rd year of the 4-year cycle. So far, this is the most bullish portion of the 4-year cycle.
As I always say, BTC often consolidates after 3 or 4 big candles move on a weekly chart and in some cases, some altcoins take advantage of the consolidation to outperform Bitcoin.
It shouldn’t be a surprise that, these 3 big green candles need a few red candles to consolidate before any peak could be achieved. In a bull market like this, expect the consolidation to last couple of weeks, probably till the 1st week of January. Therefore, I don’t think we should expect a peak in this weekly cycle, wait till the next 60-day cycle. We’re now in week-13 of the weekly cycle.
The last day of this 60-day cycle is January 3rd and based on the timing band, expect the bull market to peak around early March timeframe. Then another decline will take place in the later part of March as the 4-year cycle journeys.
Again, we’re in the most bullish phase of the 4-year cycle, and we should ensure that, we don’t get shaken out by any short-term weakness happening in the market.
Chart 2 . A clear break away from the range of 8 months consolidation and still in the bullish portion of the 4-year cycle: Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
ETH/ BTC CHART
No confirmation yet, but I strongly believe that, Ethereum has now finally bottomed out verses BTC. The lows have reversed overnight and this could be a game changer.
We had a bit of trap before, then another shakeout on the bottom. But I’m going on with the assumption that, we’re in another phase.
BTC is broken out, we’re now getting the rotation into alt coins. We’re seeing it across the board, we’ve seen this in Ripple, ADA and other altcoins where they managed to jump significantly and very quickly. Ethereum versus BTC may do something similar as you can see from the chart.
I’m not suggesting that, it’s going to be a one month all the way back up to where it was in the past, but I think we’re going to see something very significant out of Ethereum at some point versus BTC.
So, if you had rotated out of Ethereum as I did for a good portion of it, this is probably not a bad idea to say okay, maybe I’ll go back in. But again, that’s for you to decide on rotating some back into Ethereum as it’s doing pretty well at the moment.
Chart 3. Ethereum may likely have finally bottomed out verses BTC: Source: bitcoin.live , ETHUSD Chart by TradingView
ETH/ USD CHART
Ethereum sits 37% below the all-time high while Bitcoin is sitting 30% above its high from 2021, and that isn’t a negative development as it highlights its enormous upside potential. ETH/USD is trading above $3600 as of today, and could hit its all-time high resistance of $4,920, if the bullish momentum continues and it’s able to overcome a key trendline resistance.
Again, Ethereum still has the brand and the capital, so we’re definitely going to see a big move. We already have seen a big move from the 2400 level, but I think you will start to see a major move where Ethereum could possibly jump and get to the all-time high. And it can also happen in a very short period of time, like you’ve seen in some of the other coins like Ripple and ADA that have gone up a couple of 100% or so.
Again, it’s not a bad move to possibly rotate back into Ethereum and take that equally as an allocation.
Chart 4. ETH/USD, trading above $3600 as of today, and could hit its all-time high resistance of $4,920: Source: bitcoin.live , ETHUSD Chart by TradingView
