3CommasBitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis – 04.04.2023
Bitcoin closed March with a bullish candle amid of regulatory oppression in the United States. Bitcoin gained almost 22% in March, rising from $23,450 to the end of the month at over $28,500. The big bullish candle has mirrored the one in January, setting up the next major move for the asset.
The crypto market’s capitalization fell by 1.1% over the past day to 1.17 trillion, which resembles profit-taking after 50% of market growth in the first quarter of this year. Bitcoin underwent an even more active sell-off the night before, losing about 2% in 24 hours, but holding near $28K, bringing the result of the first quarter to 70%.
BTC daily chart shows the price holding up well after the tremendous move higher off the lows, consolidating at a logical resistance point of the 1st half (day-26) of the 60-day cycle. We should expect another upward move at the mid-point of the cycle to form a right translated cycle.
The Bollinger Bands (BB) are beginning to tighten up, so we should expect two scenarios here during the mid-cycle. 1st is to have a higher high from the consolidation and the other option is to have a sharp drop in the 2nd half of the 60-day cycle, closely followed with a move high.
Trading side-way in the last 2 weeks has formed a congestion zone. This congestion zone could provide the thrust to break-through the resistance line at $30,000. With a solid monthly close for March, the daily time frame has gained an even more bullish profile for $BTC.
Resistance to the upside is around $29,000 to $29,500, whereas lower support levels are a little over $27,000. A break outside from these Bands may imply a more powerful breakout with a new short-term trend’s appearance. There are further indicators that Bitcoin prices could push higher as the price action is trending above all the moving averages (MAs).
On the flip side, as long as the Bitcoin price is trading in a positive zone from the $27,200 support, the bullish bias remains intact.
Chart 1. The price action holding up well after the tremendous move higher off the lows, consolidating at a logical resistance point of the 1st half (day-26) of the 60-day cycle. Source: Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
Looking at the BTC weekly chart we see a pennant flag after the big candle, indicating the trend is going up well above the 10-week MA. The 4-year cycle low is right now behind us as we’re getting to the point where the bears are beginning to capitulate.
The target of the underlying H&S on the weekly chart is $35,000+. A retest of the neckline at $25,000 still cannot be ruled out.
Nonetheless, the chart shows BTC has cleared all the MAs, which is an important sentimental level, providing a generally bullish outlook. Resistance is now support.
For a bullish option, we need a continuation of this positive consolidation and a move above the $29k level will take us to potential higher targets.
The longer Bitcoin hovers above $28,000 area without declining, the stronger the bulls become as we’re almost at the midpoint of a bullish cycle.
Chart 2.A pennant flag after the big candle, indicating the trend is going up well above the 10-week MA.
Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
ETHEREUM/USD
Ethereum looks good to me, moving in the right direction. Making new highs and looking very bullish. For the first time in over 7 months, it broke the $1,900 resistance level and now eyeing $2k key level.
Today’s move has seen ETH/USD push back above the March $1,860 high and with little in the way of technical resistance ahead, Ethereum may soon challenge August 14, 2022, high at $2,031. All the moving averages are lined up in a positive series with the 10-day MA in particular, providing short-term support to the move higher.
The short-term target is the resistance of $2031, the medium-term target is the liquidity zone of $2200 and $2300.
A breakout of the 1850 level has activated optimism that could push the price up, thus forming a bullish momentum.
Chart 3 Ethereum trending in the right direction, above the 10-day MA and making new highs.
Source: bitcoin.live , ETHUSD Chart by TradingView
ETH/BTC
Still holding its value even though we had a slight retrace in Eth/BTC ratio. Ethereum has cemented itself as an asset that has real value for long-term projection.
Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin since mid-March as BTC led the crypto market higher. In contrast to Ethereum, the ETH/BTC spread has a positive moving average set-up. Further upside may be slow as the pair is now near an old trading zone from September to early November last year that may take time to break.
Solid bounce for ETH relative to BTC in the past two days, though, still just expect this as nothing more than a swing play opportunity and profits should rotate back into BTC before $30K breaks and the ratio trend reverses.
Chart 4 shows Ethereum still holding its value even though we had a slight retrace in Eth/BTC ratio.
Source: bitcoin.live , ETHUSD Chart by TradingView
