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Bitcoin and  Ethereum Market Analysis – 05.12.2021

We had a significant sell-off and volatility yesturday. For every of my analysis, I always emphasize on, what is the worst case scenario; what is the down side that you need to pay attention, at any given time. One thing I notice is that, most people pay attention more about the upside (that will definitely take care of itself) than the downside.

You need to have a plan, no model is bolletproof, and every model has its own risk. In every right translated cycle, expect a one-time massive decline like the one overnight.

From the chart below, you can see a massive flush out, $2.56B liquidated overnight. This is a good time to reflect on what happened last night and make the necessary adjustment.

Pic.1: A summary of the liquidations

Most Altcoins move down faster than the BTC when you have massive liquidations like this. When BTC drops 10%, they drop 15%-20%. That’s why you need to be careful when putting altcoins, in your main portfolio.

Looking at the 4-hour BTC chart, we have the highest volume since June especially in the spot capitulation area. Looking at the 4-hour Futures leverage chart, you can notice liquidations of significant size. This is a shake-out, that could prepare the market for the next big move up.

Pic.2: We have the highest volume since June especially in the spot capitulation area.
Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

The BTC daily chart shows, we could be having a 65-day cycle low, because, we don’t have a higher high. This means, the decline is not done yet. We are going to see further sell-off before any possible big move. We shouldn’t expect any ATH soon. The next coming 60-day cycle would a consolidating cycle.

Pic.3: We could be having a 65-day cycle low.
Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

When we look at the BTC on a weekly, from the structural point, it’s technically not broken. We still have higher lows that will consolidate for some time. This will lead to the resumption of the bull trend. We have had similar structure in the past and I expect the 4-year cycle to end in December next year (not June).

Pic.4: From the structural point, it’s technically not broken. Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

Ethereum
Ethereum is back to $4k level after capitulated to $3.5k level last night. This means the recovery rate is higher than the BTC. If it was in the past, Ethereum would have been trading at $3200 right now. The demand for Ether has surged lately. From the spot perspective, everything seems to be in order here.

Pic.5: ETH is back to $4k level, meaning the recovery rate is higher than the BTC.
Source: bitcoin.live , ETHUSD Chart by TradingView

🔴This Market Update is created using Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at Bitcoin.live. Peter Brendt is a Trader since 1975. Author and publisher of the Factor Report as well as Best Selling Trading Books. If you want to read full content by him and his partners, trading signals/calls in real time, daily/weekly/monthly reports, trading videos and podcasts, trading tips check out his VIP Subscription Service


🔴This Market Update is created using Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at Bitcoin.live. Peter Brendt is a Trader since 1975. Author and publisher of the Factor Report as well as Best Selling Trading Books. If you want to read full content by him and his partners, trading signals/calls in real time, daily/weekly/monthly reports, trading videos and podcasts, trading tips check out his VIP Subscription Service