Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis – 06.02.2023
Bitcoin price recent spike took a slight knock as the market has been consolidating within a significant range for days. While there are some worrying technical signs in the short term, a very bullish signal is developing in both BTC/usd and Ethereum/usd pairs for the medium and long term.
We have clearly run out of momentum, but that’s not a huge surprise considering just how strong we were to the upside. I also believe that the $25k level above should offer a significant amount of resistance, from a psychological perspective.
We’re in the 2nd half of the 60-day cycle, so a move back to $24k-$25k level will reduce the bullish pressure and reposition the cycle to end in a right translated structure.
Looking at the BTC daily chart we see a slight retrace but the bullish narrative for now has held well. Bitcoin’s price is currently consolidating above the $22.5K level and still within the 10-day MA.
Still in the 2nd half of the 60-day cycle, we may go sideways for a while though, up till the last days of the 60-days cycle point for more upside possibilities. We shouldn’t respond to the $1k moves in either direction. Let’s allow the market to reposition itself to make the right translated cycle. I’m still long here and giving it the chance to make that move up towards $25k.
Overall, bitcoin price is consolidating with higher lows after the 22-January breakout. If the price clears the $24K, the $25k to 28K resistance becomes the next area to anticipate. This is particularly useful for those who employ smaller time frame strategies.
Looking at the chart, a bullish rally towards $28k won’t get approved unless BTC breaks and closes above the trendline. Chances of BTC breaking above the trendline remains high. Let’s not rule out the fact that it could go contrary, leading to a retest of the $21k level.
Chart 1. BTC price having a slight retrace but the bullish narrative for now has held well.
Source: Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
The BTC weekly chart shows a clear break away from the lower low (downward channel) of the 4-year cycle. With this bullish development, a medium-term move higher in the 4-year cycle is becoming more likely now.
With the 10-week MA trending high, I’m looking at the remaining 60-day cycle to be more of consolidation but we shouldn’t rule out any possibility of having a significant drop that could form a clean 60-day cycle low (double bottom).
Still room for that one good move higher (even though, the appearance of a doji candle reflected indecision) especially, if it can break above the recent high around $24k.
Chart 2. BTC price action having a clear break away from the lower low of the 4-year cycle:
Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
Ethereum
Still looking positive for the uptrend move, 10-day MA trending higher. Currently consolidating above the USD 1,600 level and for the bulls to be in firm control, Ethereum needs to break above the trendline.
The momentum is still higher than that of BTC as the consolidation appears to be the next move up. Let’s focus on how we can be best positioned to take full advantage of this opportunity.
On the other hand, because of its high volatility, the bears could also push the price below $1,550, which may likely end up retesting the $1,400 level. The good news is that, the RSI is on the way back to the upper side of the range.
Our next bullish target is the $ 1800 resistance zone. A break above that level would take us back to the rising portion of the 4-year cycle.
Chart 3. Ethereum consolidating in the right direction, above the 10-day MA and the RSI is on the way back to the upper side of the range.
Source: bitcoin.live , ETHUSD Chart by TradingView
