Cryptocurrency Market update – Oct-12-2023
Crypto market continues to struggle to gain momentum as BTC constantly fails to ignite a much-awaited bull run in the crypto-market. Despite BTC facing problem of flipping $27k to support, the price action has managed to hold well in a wide range of $25k – $30k area for the past six months.
The backdrop for the cryptocurrency market should be mildly positive with a raft of spot BTC and ETH ETFs expected shortly, while global interest rates are seen at, or very close to, their peaks. Markets are expected to remain choppy in the coming weeks owing to the uncertain geo-political conditions.
Anyone that has a long view, can hold on to 15-18 months, as BTC at $25k provides a very good buying opportunity as, that is the final move of the 4-year cycle low.
BTC is targeting $32k medium-term and I don’t see the price action sustaining such move in the short-term. The short-term direction is neutral; it is useful to look again on the long-term to get a better understanding of where we might be compared to the previous cycles.
BTC daily chart shows BTC price is struggling to break-out from $26k-to-$28k range in either direction but the bullish narrative has held well. We’re in day-50 of the 60-day cycle and all moving averages (Mas) are trending low suggesting we must have seen the top at day-41 of the cycle.
From the bullish point of view, 12 % gain in the last 60-day cycle is not good enough, giving room to lots of indecisions out there.
A closer look at the chart shows a descending channel, seems to be forming in the last days of the 60-day cycle timeframe. So, a breakout from the lower boundary of the pattern could signal the beginning of a mid-term bullish trend leading to the next 60-day cycle.
While there are some worrying technical signs in the short term, the oscillation of the price in a range-bound in the last six months is giving room for an upside in favor of the bulls. Corrections halted over the last couple of months above the $25K support level have also proven to be a good sign of bullish dominance.
Chart 1. BTC price having a slight retrace but the bullish narrative for now has held well.
Source: Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
BTC weekly chart shows the price action consolidating above $25K support level and still within the 10-week MA. A clear break above the lower channel of the 4-year cycle is good even though the bullish momentum is still lacking, and the price has failed to retest the $30K psychological level for a long time now.
There’s both bullish and bearish narrative, though, no conviction of where it’s heading in the medium- term, even though it has held well in the last few months.
I don’t see the price action coming out top of the range in the remaining days of the 60-day cycle. Indeed, we’ve not had a new-high for a long period of time now, but whatever that’s happening now will not change the bullish narrative in the next 4-year cycle.
My long-term opinion is unchanged — Bitcoin is in a generational bull market. However, there is an appropriate time to protect capital.
Chart 2. BTC price action, well above the lower channel of the 4-year cycle.
Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
ETH/USD
Both ETH/BTC and ETH/USD have shown weakness for some days now. ETH/USD is not looking very good as it has gone down to that low of August and September.
There’s a possibility that the price may turn up from the two crucial key levels- $1,600 & $1680 to end the current decline. More factors suggest the uptrend may resume as opposed to any further decline.
If the price continues to consolidate in a tight range around $1,550, it will enhance the prospects of a break above the overhead resistance at $1700.
Let’s be patient, a good timely setup is forming that may lead to full allocation back probably in January.
Chart 3. ETH/USD, down to the low of August and September.
Source: bitcoin.live , Chart by TradingView
