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Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis – 16.12.2022

Bitcoin’s short-term outlook looks neutral as BTC has been stabilized in recent weeks, more work needs to be done before concluding that the worst for the cryptocurrency is over. Bullish crypto momentum fizzled after Fed Chair Powell poured cold water on investors’ hopes but higher time frames remain interesting.

The sudden hike and the euphoria that resonated from such a move has suddenly faded, and Bitcoin slumped toward $16.8k. Of course, that is no surprise for us as we repeated multiple times that there would be more economic tightening, pushing the market bottom further away. With that said, we hardly believe the bottom has taken place. Indeed, we still maintain our price targets for Bitcoin at $15k and $14k presenting perfect time to change to long term buy.

Presently, day-to-day price action is not encouraging, but looking at longer duration metrics that gauge Bitcoin’s price, investor sentiment and perceptions of valuation do present some glimpse of hope when the next cycle begins.

BTC/USD daily chart shows a retracement below the 10-day MA, which often coincides with strong market consolidation. BTC/USD has risen above the immediate barrier at the mid-November high of $17170, but it doesn’t appear to be convincing given the bearish dominance. This $18k level currently acts as a resistance level for the price and having suffered rejection shows that the bear market is far from over.

We’re in the 2nd half of the 60-day cycle and it looks like the cycle has peaked. I hope that there won’t be any negative news that will cause a high volume of liquidation this time around.

Let’s be patient and wait to see what the next cycle brings to the table.

Chart 1. $18k level currently acts as a resistance and as a barrier to the price action
Source: Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

Looking at the BTC/USD weekly chart, we see BTC still in a falling wedge pattern even though it’s trending slightly up. Still trading below the 10-week MA and heading to January cycle low, I believe, it’s firmly transitioning and there will be more accumulation to start the next cycle in the right translation.

From the long-term perspective, we need to be defensive and focus on the next bull market which might not come pretty soon.

Chart 2. BTC trading below the 10-week MA and heading to January cycle low
Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

Ethereum
Still the same as BTC, made some moves up in the previous days but nearly 5% lower than yesterday’s peak. Ethereum is thus deciding on its fate if it closes this week below the 10-day MA and it will act as a sandbox that will slow any sprint to the upside. This fits the narrative when traders are looking for that Christmas rally, but it gets stalled each time as profit-taking happens too early and too quickly.

Ethereum is not breaking down completely even though the highs are moving lower. Wait patiently till this cycle low ends and the next cycle begins.

We need to see the price action recover and move above the 10-day MA. This will give a bullish view of Ethereum breaking out of the downward channel.

Chart 3. ETH trading below 10-day MA which acts as a sandbox that will slow any sprint to the upside
Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

🔴This Market Update is created using Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at Bitcoin.live. Peter Brendt is a Trader since 1975. Author and publisher of the Factor Report as well as Best Selling Trading Books. If you want to read full content by him and his partners, trading signals/calls in real time, daily/weekly/monthly reports, trading videos and podcasts, trading tips check out his VIP Subscription Service


🔴This Market Update is created using Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at Bitcoin.live. Peter Brendt is a Trader since 1975. Author and publisher of the Factor Report as well as Best Selling Trading Books. If you want to read full content by him and his partners, trading signals/calls in real time, daily/weekly/monthly reports, trading videos and podcasts, trading tips check out his VIP Subscription Service