Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis – 18.04.2023
Cryptocurrency market has enjoyed a great start of the year even though it has remained relatively calm in the last few days amid negative equity indices and a rising US dollar. There are some indicators showing a robust bear market recovery, but the recovery cycle is still very similar to the one seen during the 2018 bear market in terms of length and trajectory.
Bitcoin is currently at a key resistance level, and its reaction is essential for the trend in the next few weeks. With a rally 100% off the lows, $BTC is trading above a very large cluster of supply, that formed the 2022 floor. However, the end of the Bitcoin bear market could be near as the bulls gather more pace.
Meanwhile, Ethereum price has been in the uptrend and could benefit from additional momentum due to the recent Shanghai/Capella upgrade.
Overall, the market sentiment remains somewhat positive.
BTC/USD daily chart shows a much entrenched bullish structure within a normal cycle uptrend progression. We’re in day 39 of the 60-day cycle, well above the 10-day MA and still room for further upside expansion towards a firmly right translated cycle.
We still need to see a double top but a move back here is still fairly much in the cards. I don’t think we worry about this, unless $28,100 is broken. In such a case, I would then say the 60-day cycle has topped.
BTC is currently fighting for that pivotal level, and it’s interesting to see if it will ride above the key resistance levels to make a move up to $34-35k level. A swift move above the $31k psychological level will be the first sign of bearish weakness. If this move continues to propel BTC higher and produces a daily candlestick close above $32,661, it will invalidate the bearish thesis.
A confirmation of the bullish outlook will arrive when Bitcoin price produces a higher high and tags the next critical hurdle at $32,661.
Chart 1. A much entrenched bullish structure within a normal cycle uptrend progression.
Source: Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
Looking at the BTC/USD weekly chart, we see the price is nicely riding the upper BB of those lows with relative strength. There’s nothing of huge concern here. From the chart point of view, we’re still waiting for another top in the intermediate time-frame.
We’re above the 10-week MA and still in the rising trend channel in the medium-term. We’ve seen a little retrace, that’s okay but coming days may trend to the upside to increase optimism among investors that will ensure continued rise.
So we’re now approaching the next cycle high, but we’ve yet to see a thrust or surge to an overbought level, which is pretty common during a bull market uptrend. If we get another good multi-day push, it’s likely to be that final move in this current cycle.
Chart 2. The price still above the 10-week MA with relative strength indicating an attempt to continue the uptrend.
Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
Ethereum/USD
Eth/USD is looking really good and showing some strength since the move that didn’t form a lower low. To me, that’s a very bullish statement that ETH is targeting the $2200 key level and is approaching it quickly.
All the moving averages (MAs) are sloping higher, comfortably above the 10-day MA. It didn’t really pull back in the last few days like Bitcoin did but consolidating nicely.
Let’s not rule out a decline or consolidation in the short term, either before testing the $2200 level or after. In this case, $1800 and the 50-day moving average, trending nearby, could be considered support levels to hold the market.
An increase in buyer momentum could enhance the uptrend for ETH, enabling a shatter of the immediate hurdle at $2,221 before a potential neck up to the $2,400 level in highly ambitious case.
Chart 3. The price showing some relative strength above the $2k key level and it’s well above the 10-day MA.
Source: bitcoin.live , ETHUSD Chart by TradingView
ETH/BTC
Ethereum is showing some relative strength over Bitcoin as it’s in the rising trend of the channel. Since the last bear market, Ethereum has maintained its value to BTC reinforcing itself as a strong blue-chip of the crypto market. Holding Ethereum for a long-term makes a lot of sense.
Chart 4. Some relative strength over Bitcoin as it’s in the rising trend of the channel.
Source: bitcoin.live , ETHBTC Chart by TradingView
