Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis – Feb-20-2025

Bitcoin remains in a “bull cycle” despite a month of sideways of price action and a lack of strength to reclaim $100,000 psychological level. We’re still in a bull cycle and I think that the bull cycle will continue even with a -25% dip from ATH (110K), as seen in past cycles.

Bitcoin remains in the range as the daily cycle (60-day) gets closer towards its cycle Low. Considering where it stands (late) in the daily and weekly cycles, Bitcoin is holding very strong. Any move now back towards the lower range ($90k) is likely the final ending move of this cycle. Alternatively, any daily close above $102,200 is likely to be a new cycle and a very bullish development.

Getting close now to a new cycle and likely a full resumption of the bull market uptrend. It is useful to look again on the long-term to get a better understanding of where we might be, compared to the previous cycles.

BTC/USD DAILY CHART

BTC daily chart shows BTC price is struggling to break-out from the range in either direction but the bullish narrative has held well. We’re in day-50 of the 60-day cycle and all moving averages (Mas) are trending low suggesting we must have seen the top at day-21 of the cycle.

We’re right in the timing band where a flush down to the bottom of the range or below that range could be the final ending portion of the 60-day cycle and could reset the 60-day cycle. And then hopefully as an extension, reset the weekly cycle and begin the next phase. In light of where Bitcoin stands in the daily chart, it’s holding up pretty well. This is a natural decline down to the bottom of the range.

While there are some worrying technical signs in the short term, the oscillation of the price in a range-bound in the last one month is giving room for an upside in favor of the bulls.

I’m somewhat defensive going into the next 60-day cycle.

Chart 1. BTC price is struggling to break-out from the range in either direction but the bullish narrative has
held well.: Source: Paid Content by : bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

BTC/USD WEEKLY CHART

BTC weekly chart shows the price action is consolidating above the $95K level and still within the 10-week MA. A clear break above the lower channel of the 4-year cycle is good even though the bullish momentum is still lacking, and the price has failed to retest the $100K psychological level for a long time now.

From cycle perspective, we should have shakeouts and capitulations (say, mid-eighties), near the end of the cycle, especially after consolidating for a period like this in the final phase of the 60-day cycle. That would be normal and allow the final sentiment reset in the cycle, and then begin moving higher. Four red candles make sense towards the end of the cycle, trading or closing at least below 10-week MA. And that’s something I often reiterate whenever we’re are in the rising portion of the cycle, that we should expect this towards the final phase of the cycle and it’s normal.

The final phase is often unpredictable, which is why we just have to accept the fact that, we could be heading down the bottom of the range or below the range and certainly not a time to be panicking any move down the line. The price should bounce back as I’ve mentioned earlier. This is a normal pattern of every declining phase in a 4-year cycle.

The indicator-the chart is visually zooming out showing that, BTC is actually doing well; given the big move we had since September last year, and still holding up well.

Chart 2. A clear break above the lower channel of the 4-year cycle is good even though the bullish momentum
is still lacking: Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

ETH/BTC CHART

The price action has lost its initial level. We want some kind of leeway on how it reacts over the next one month or two. We’ll surely get a big bounce and the responds at that point is what really matters. Can it get back into the range or then start trading towards the upper part of the range. That little retracement is given some kind of hope.

Sentiment does feel slightly bearish at the moment as expected; just following the script. But even when you look at the Ethereum, people already started getting excited about Ethereum. But that’s more of a function of Solano, just a hit right now.

As the Bitcoin goes down, there’s every likelihood that, Altcoins will go down as well. That has been the character of this whole cycle and in price cycle as well. That’s what is expected here. The low is formed as we can see from the slight move up; then begin the process of the 4-year cycle continuing in the bull phase.

It remains a Bitcoin story and the strength is in Bitcoin at the moment.

Chart 3.The price action has lost its initial level but has shown the potential to get back within the range.
Source: bitcoin.live , ETHUSD Chart by TradingView