Bitcoin Market Analysis – 23.04.2022
Bitcoin and major altcoins have displayed the inability to rally.
So we’re again in one of these Chopping environments where the moves are in shorter duration bursts/declines. If you’re playing with leverage, be aware of this fact. This is not one of those great trading environments. Fewer actions are the best at the moment.
We’re in the 2nd half of the 60-day cycle, so a move back to $43k will reduce the bullish pressure and reposition the cycle to end in a right translated structure.
BTC daily chart shows a lackluster structure with a three-day losing streak and this has pushed price close to multi-week lows. The daily trend model is down with the price action trading below the 10-day MA and bearish.
You do NOT want to be exposed if price drops below the recent $38,600 lows. And if we can get some further price increase, that stop level can likely come up some more.
Ideally we want to see a good 10-day rally to form new highs in this 2nd half of the 60-day Cycle. I would say near the $50k level. Then prepare for the move into the 60-day low, followed by a continuation of a “spring rally” to a peak in the next 60-day Cycle. That is at least, how I’m positioned from a spot standpoint.
But as mentioned earlier, this is a chopping (trendless) market, so any reversal lower, I will have no problem in flipping bias from an overweight to underweight (or even out) position.
Chart 1: The daily trend model is down with the price action trading below the 10-day MA and slightly bearish.
Source: Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
BTC weekly chart shows the price action, stuck in a range and trading below the 10-week MA. With all, being aware of the downside potential, the fact we are roughly ~40% below the old all-time-high.
I’m not worried about the price shooting higher, leaving us behind but worried about the declining market and the price falling below the 60-day cycle row (ATL).
We’re in the 2nd half of the 60-day cycle (day-39) and as long as BTC does not drop below $38K area before May time-frame, the uptrend stands a chance to resume fully.
The key is now for Bitcoin to begin a long awaited spring rally and make a new right translated high, Otherwise, any stalling over the next week is likely move to the lower $30k’s.
Ethereum has exactly the same look as BTC. Still a chance for spring rally. ETH was lower for a fourth consecutive session, as price once again traded below the $3,000 support level.
I would like to see it above $3,186 to have any confidence in a long. For a meantime, I’m not pushing for any trade; I don’t see any environment that sets up well for me. No futures, no leverage for now as the scenario doesn’t give room to risk capital.
Any outcome is possible right now especially, the price action retesting the lows before having any clear intention of breaking out of this downward channel.