Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis – 26.02.2023
Bitcoin’s price has been struggling to break above a significant resistance level and it’s currently experiencing a correction, following the recent red days on Wall Street. Is it just a short-term correction or a beginning of a new bearish leg?
No really good setups in the last 7 days, as Bitcoin and other top altcoins are acting a little weak, although overall still feeling relative strong versus other asset classes and the $USD strength. If the key crypto indicator – BTC can find a short-term bottom here, as equities are due to rally next week, we could see a resumption of the uptrend.
My general understanding is that people are skeptical and nervous here, and that’s a good thing. Sentiment is neutral at best, while at the same time Bitcoin is just $1,300 from the recent 8 months highs. So unless this market tells us otherwise, I prefer to sit nice and tight with the right size and give the market the chance to resolve itself higher with the intermediate term.
BTC daily chart shows a low strength, consolidating near the top of the range and most importantly over that 23k pivot – the previously broken macro lower high.
Though back below the 20-day MA. If it’s going to continue this trend higher, it needs not to go below the $23k key level. It should find support at that level to start making a right translated cycle.
Looking at the Daily chart, I think we’ve now consolidated enough, so if we’re heading higher over the short-term, then that move should really begin this week.
For traders, a break to new highs for the cycle is a long possibility, because it’s still early enough in the cycle. Alternatively, a push lower, followed by a daily close above those lows, could mark an entry.
The alternative view to the above is more of a chopping 60-day Cycle, one that basically says we already did 30% off the bottom in the last cycle, let’s spend more time (current cycle) consolidating those gains, before moving higher again in the next cycle.
Chart 1. BTC consolidating low in a tight range against an ascending channel.
Source: Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
Looking at the BTC weekly chart, there’s nothing to worry about this time. We’re still above the 10-week MA with relative strength. We’ve seen a little retrace, that’s okay but coming days may trend to the upside to form a right translated cycle.
For the short-term outlook to stay bullish, BTC/USD needs to stay above the key support cushion zone ($22150-22650) again this week. As the previous update noted, BTC/USD needs to clear the $24650-25400 area for the medium-term downward pressure to ease.
Even though the market remains in consolidation phase at the moment, I think that selling volumes still remains low. The Price needs to hold at the $23k key level for the retest to be successful.
Chart 2.Price action still above the 10-week MA with relative strength indicating an attempt to resume an uptrend.
Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
Ethereum
The same structure with the BTC, holding up well. ETH/USD bounced around in a channel of consolidation, setting up a good support area.
If Ethereum can hold on, then watch out for the next move up to the last month’s peak. Our next bullish target is the $ 1800 resistance zone. A break above that level would create a resurgence.
If Ethereum can establish $1,550 as support and does not go below this crucial mark, it could retest $1,700, which overlaps the 10-day MA. Possible increase in demand may break the correction phase and accelerate price action towards the $1,700 – $1,850 area.
Chart 3. The price action consolidating well with relative strength above the $1,500 support area.
Source: bitcoin.live , ETHUSD Chart by TradingView
