Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis – 27.06.2022

After hitting a low near $17.5k and reversing back above $21k, BTC has been trading mostly sideways. So far, it has failed to move above the $22K, which hints, the momentum is still to the downside. I remain neutral and abstain from setting a price target for BTC/USD, as the bottom is yet to be formed.

We’re in the 2nd half of the 60-day cycle, so a move back to $24k-$25k level will reduce the bearish pressure and reposition the cycle to end in a right translated structure.

Therefore, we will monitor its price action closely and look for more clues as to the resumption of the bullish trend.

BTC daily chart shows a clean break-down into the 2nd half of the 60-day cycle low. A little enthusiasm in the market after that heavy capitulation of high volume has triggered the price action to rise up to the 10-day MA.

Bitcoin is currently consolidating above the $20K level. The $17K-$20K range is likely to provide significant support, as it is the 2017 all-time high range, and it could initiate a rally in the short-term towards the $30K area. The price would have to break the $23K resistance before a potential retest of the $30K supply zone.

Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish.

Chart 1: shows a clean break-down with BTC consolidating within $19K-$21K range.

Source: Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

BTC weekly chart shows a dominant decline which suggests that a lower level of the 4-year cycle is still in the cards. This is a classic bull trap and making a lower low is giving strength to hit another ATL of the 60-day cycle low.

Bitcoin’s repeat visit to the sub-$20k range could re-enforce a lengthy sideways consolidation which could result to any of these three scenarios. The first scenario is that, BTC could make a straight-jacket upward move that will lead to a right translated cycle. The second scenario is that, it could consolidate up to the initial support level of $19.5k before going upward. The third scenario is that; it could capitulate further below the 60-day cycle low ($14k level) in July time frame.

The key is for Bitcoin to begin a long awaited spring rally and make a new right translated high, Otherwise, any stalling over the next week is likely move BTC to below $20k.

Chart 2: shows a dominant decline which suggests that a lower level of the 4-year cycle is still in the cards.
Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

Ethereum
ETH retraced more than 40% from its recent low of $880. But there is still a dark cloud hanging over it. The total evaluation for the ETH asset is still bearish and very similar to the BTC chart. Most importantly, there is a rising wedge formation supported with decreasing volumes.

We need to see the price action recover and move above the 10-day MA. This will give a bullish view of Ethereum breaking out of the downward channel.
For the bullish option, we need consolidation and a return now above $ 1250 and the conditions for the formation of a new higher low would be created. Our next bullish target is the $ 1300 resistance zone. A break above that level would take us back to the rising portion of the 4-year cycle. Without mentioned above, we are heading down….

Chart 3. A rising wedge formation supported with decreasing volumes
Source: bitcoin.live , ETHUSD Chart by TradingView