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Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis – 27.06.2022

After hitting a low near $17.5k and reversing back above $21k, BTC has been trading mostly sideways. So far, it has failed to move above the $22K, which hints, the momentum is still to the downside. I remain neutral and abstain from setting a price target for BTC/USD, as the bottom is yet to be formed.

We’re in the 2nd half of the 60-day cycle, so a move back to $24k-$25k level will reduce the bearish pressure and reposition the cycle to end in a right translated structure.

Therefore, we will monitor its price action closely and look for more clues as to the resumption of the bullish trend.

BTC daily chart shows a clean break-down into the 2nd half of the 60-day cycle low. A little enthusiasm in the market after that heavy capitulation of high volume has triggered the price action to rise up to the 10-day MA.

Bitcoin is currently consolidating above the $20K level. The $17K-$20K range is likely to provide significant support, as it is the 2017 all-time high range, and it could initiate a rally in the short-term towards the $30K area. The price would have to break the $23K resistance before a potential retest of the $30K supply zone.

Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish.

Chart 1: shows a clean break-down with BTC consolidating within $19K-$21K range.

Source: Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

BTC weekly chart shows a dominant decline which suggests that a lower level of the 4-year cycle is still in the cards. This is a classic bull trap and making a lower low is giving strength to hit another ATL of the 60-day cycle low.

Bitcoin’s repeat visit to the sub-$20k range could re-enforce a lengthy sideways consolidation which could result to any of these three scenarios. The first scenario is that, BTC could make a straight-jacket upward move that will lead to a right translated cycle. The second scenario is that, it could consolidate up to the initial support level of $19.5k before going upward. The third scenario is that; it could capitulate further below the 60-day cycle low ($14k level) in July time frame.

The key is for Bitcoin to begin a long awaited spring rally and make a new right translated high, Otherwise, any stalling over the next week is likely move BTC to below $20k.

Chart 2: shows a dominant decline which suggests that a lower level of the 4-year cycle is still in the cards.
Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

Ethereum
ETH retraced more than 40% from its recent low of $880. But there is still a dark cloud hanging over it. The total evaluation for the ETH asset is still bearish and very similar to the BTC chart. Most importantly, there is a rising wedge formation supported with decreasing volumes.

We need to see the price action recover and move above the 10-day MA. This will give a bullish view of Ethereum breaking out of the downward channel.
For the bullish option, we need consolidation and a return now above $ 1250 and the conditions for the formation of a new higher low would be created. Our next bullish target is the $ 1300 resistance zone. A break above that level would take us back to the rising portion of the 4-year cycle. Without mentioned above, we are heading down….

Chart 3. A rising wedge formation supported with decreasing volumes
Source: bitcoin.live , ETHUSD Chart by TradingView

🔴This Market Update is created using Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at Bitcoin.live. Peter Brendt is a Trader since 1975. Author and publisher of the Factor Report as well as Best Selling Trading Books. If you want to read full content by him and his partners, trading signals/calls in real time, daily/weekly/monthly reports, trading videos and podcasts, trading tips check out his VIP Subscription Service


🔴This Market Update is created using Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at Bitcoin.live. Peter Brendt is a Trader since 1975. Author and publisher of the Factor Report as well as Best Selling Trading Books. If you want to read full content by him and his partners, trading signals/calls in real time, daily/weekly/monthly reports, trading videos and podcasts, trading tips check out his VIP Subscription Service