Cryptocurrency Market update – Dec-27-2023
Starting to look like a new Bitcoin 60-day Cycle is underway. Overall, the crypto space remains strong, and of course the ETF approval narrative driving this market and the tracked ALTs are outperforming BTC. The SEC is likely to approve Spot BTC ETF by January 10 according to Fox Business report. Spot Bitcoin ETF approval is expected to usher in institutional capital and demand for BTC, catalyzing gains in the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin price has recently found a stable range around the critical resistance level of $45K, indicating a bullish sentiment among market participants.
However, there already is a possibility of a short-term 30% decline, potentially pulling back towards the 30K-35K level.
I continue to maintain the position and remain exposed to the cycle. we can use the $40,000 recent lows as a stopping point, in the event Bitcoin wants starts to sell off and begin a long overdue 30% like correction.
The BTC daily chart shows that Bitcoin’s upward trajectory has faded upon reaching the critical $45K resistance zone. This level coincides with the upper boundary of an ascending channel, leading to a phase of price stabilization and sideways movement.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading within a crucial range, bordered by the $45K resistance and the strong support at $40K. The price action is above the 10-day MA and still maintaining the higher-high position, and very likely we have a new cycle, but not confirmed yet.
The market is likely to maintain this consolidation pattern for the short term. However, due to the noticeable bearish divergence between the price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a retracement towards the lower end of this range is expected, pending a definitive breakout in either direction.
Chart 1. Bitcoin’s upward trajectory has faded upon reaching the critical $45K resistance zone.
Source: Paid Content from bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
A close look at the BTC weekly chart shows BTC is gearing up to form a bull flag on a weekly chart in preparation of the move leading to the ETF approval and a surge to the upside.
BTC has stayed above the $43k level, resisting a decline below the $41k mark, holding to nearly 3% weekly gains to validate the bullish thesis for the asset.
Waiting for ETF approval may get it up-to 54k-55k before the decline, but the 30-35% decline wouldn’t be unusual. Just to reset sentiment and get some people out. You can take some profits off now.
To maintain the trend, the cycle low should not be revisited.
Chart 2.BTC is gearing up to form a bit of a flag on a weekly chart in preparation of the move leading to the ETF approval
and a surge to the upside to form a peak. Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
ETH/USD
The chart is still looking good but a bit confusing to me than the Bitcoin chart. I view ETH as forming a massive rising wedge. The rising wedge usually results in a bearish price trend, but not always. Note that price poked out of the top of the wedge recently, then returned to within the wedge.
On the bigger time frame, one should pay attention to the candle’s closure in terms of the resistance level of $2,392. If that happens near it or above, the upward move may continue to the $2,500 area soon.
My long-term opinion is unchanged — Ethereum is in a generational bull market. However, there is an appropriate time to protect capital and avoid 30% decline. It may be now.
Chart 3. ETH, forming a massive rising wedge which could results in a bearish price trend.
Source: bitcoin.live , ETHUSD Chart by TradingView
