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Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis – 28.12.2022

With volatility still largely absent from crypto markets, we are keenly eyeing what could happen at this week’s yearly close. Bitcoin price has been oscillating in a very tight range heading into the new year’s holidays, offering little clue on the direction of the next significant move. Nevertheless, the market remains in a very decisive area, demand for cryptocurrencies wanes and the outflows continue; its fate could be decided in January.

Look at the overweight position for the long term and remind yourself that patience and survival are the goals of a bear trend.

Looking at BTC daily chart we see BTC, grappling sideways over 10 days now. This is Day-49 of the 60-day cycle; still in the declining stage of the cycle since the Day-35 top.

The default view now is that we’re in a declining stage heading lower into the next cycle low but anything around $18k is a bullish breakout. A rally towards the $18K level and even the higher boundary of the large falling wedge pattern could be on the horizon in January. The key support and resistance points to watch will be at $15,500 and $17,500.

As we’re getting closer to the next 60-day cycle in January, the price action is challenged to retrace its declining move or it will find itself into the $14k-15.4k range. A breakout in either direction is possible; so be prepared for such moves.

Let’s focus on the “time” and not the “price” at this moment as we’re in the final phase of the 60-day cycle of the 4-year cycle low.

Chart 1. BTC grappling sideways over 10 days. This is Day-49 of the 60-day cycle; still in the declining stage of the cycle since the Day-35 top.
Source: Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

BTC weekly chart shows the low in November may be the end of the lowest point of this 4-year cycle low. Right in the timely band of the 4-year cycle low. Bitcoin is still trading below the 10-week MA and getting more buying to hold the price in the support area (to reduce the lengthy consolidation) and the resultant effect will be a counter trend move.

The last time the 4-year cycle peaked was April last year and the weekly cycle low event may take time to grind its way out.

Let’s be patient, both the bulls and the bears are lying low during the holiday season. A good timely setup is forming that may lead to full allocation back probably in March.

Chart 2. Bitcoin is still trading below the 10-week MA in the timely band of the 4-year cycle low
Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

Ethereum – ETH/USD

We’re approaching that 60-day cycle low in January and the failure of the bulls to push Ether (ETH) above the 10-day MA ($1,223), indicates that the bears are defending the level with vigor. That may have led the bulls to surrender and close their positions.

Nonetheless, it continues to trade sideways above the $1,150 region. While there have been short-term downward movements, the cryptocurrency has been ranging in a narrow band for some days now. For the bulls to be in firm control, ETH/USD needs to break above the trendline and when such a scenario plays out, the $1,300 level could be a decisive point for the cryptocurrency.

Chart 3. the failure of the bulls to push Ether (ETH) above the 10-day MA ($1,223), indicates that the bears are defending the level with vigor
Source: bitcoin.live , ETHUSD Chart by TradingView

🔴This Market Update is created using Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at Bitcoin.live. Peter Brendt is a Trader since 1975. Author and publisher of the Factor Report as well as Best Selling Trading Books. If you want to read full content by him and his partners, trading signals/calls in real time, daily/weekly/monthly reports, trading videos and podcasts, trading tips check out his VIP Subscription Service


🔴This Market Update is created using Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at Bitcoin.live. Peter Brendt is a Trader since 1975. Author and publisher of the Factor Report as well as Best Selling Trading Books. If you want to read full content by him and his partners, trading signals/calls in real time, daily/weekly/monthly reports, trading videos and podcasts, trading tips check out his VIP Subscription Service