Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis – Dec-7-2024
Bitcoin (BTC) hit an all-time high above $100,000 earlier this week, a long-awaited milestone for crypto history. The historic peak came despite sluggish performance across other major global assets. Over the past month, Bitcoin’s price surged by 32%, while oil dropped 6.3%, the S&P 500 fell 1% and gold declined by 1%. Wednesday’s announcement of the nomination of digital asset-friendly Paul Atkins to chair the SEC added more bullish momentum to Bitcoin.
With the market structure being so bullish, even a run toward the $120K area is possible in the short term. Bitcoin’s rebound from consolidation has reset the key price metrics and paved a path for BTC to chase after the $110,000 level, boosting expectations of a $110k “local top” before United States President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.
Bitcoin price trades above $100k again, proving that every minor dip is being purchased. The bull market is roaring already, we’re already seeing more altcoins now beginning to outperform Bitcoin in a broad basis for the first time. The capital is beginning to rotate out into Altcoins, that’s where we know that the bull market is in everybody’s mind.
Stay focused and be in position as the more speculative phase of the cycle has begun to take hold.
BTC/USD DAILY CHART
The daily chart shows that Bitcoin has finally broken through the 100K milestone and is pushing toward the $105K level. With the market structure being so bullish, even a run toward the $120K area is possible in the short term.
The progression, moving higher here in the 60-day cycle still looks pretty good, leaving behind the midpoint of the cycle into the 2nd half of a right translated cycle. We still have time in this cycle for higher prices, this is just day-33 of the 60-day cycle, having the most right translated cycle in the bull phase so far. I see this move continuing to day-40 before the Christmas holidays or even beyond.
The concern here is that, we really want to be sure that, the move is sustainable and not run into kind of a blow-off move that will lead to a multi-month retracement or consolidation. The more consistent it can be, the more it can continue to drive higher. Don’t be overly excited on the possibility of this move going into the top of the cycle.
Chart 1. Bitcoin has finally broken through the 100K milestone and is pushing toward the $105K level. Source: Paid Content by bitcoin.live
Chart by TradingView
BTC/USD WEEKLY CHART
The chart shows a big move right there at the top of the range of over 7 months and still didn’t pull back, making a higher high. This move broke out from the prior all-time high of March of last year.
It’s been really a good move since November so, a pause would be healthy, but I’m not sure if we’ll get a pause in this market considering how well, it has been acting ever since it broke out with Trump’s win.
We have three green candles above the weekly Bollinger Bands and the price action is well above the 10-week MA. The price may push slightly higher till the end of the year, then be more time-based, consolidating before making one more good move up into the top of the next 60-day cycle after Trump’s inauguration.
I know we all want to make huge money but there’s still much time for a move up and then, a consolidation that will make the market more sustainable. The market has to be sustained to see a 4-year cycle that goes all the way through 2025 into the end of the year.
Chart 2. A clear break away from the range of over 7 months and the price action is well above the 10-week MA. Source: Paid Content by bitcoin.live Chart by TradingView
ETH/BTC CHART
ETH/BTC chart is looking pretty good across board, a big straight move up, with Ethereum hitting the $4096 level and BTC, breaking out from the prior all-time high of March of last year.
The months of lackluster price performance of Ethereum are over after reclaiming levels not seen since March 2024.The price of Ethereum has gained 10.7% over the past week and market capitalization is well above $1 trillion for the first time in history.
I do think (no confirmation yet), given where we are in the cycle, that Ethereum has bottomed versus Bitcoin and you’ll start to see more outperformance in Ethereum versus Bitcoin. I’ve gone back to rotate my allocation, not a huge amount but back to kind of a good allocation.
For this bullish scenario to continue, Ethereum has to move back above the candle in November, that was the spike that got reversed, back above that and finally have some sort of a series of higher highs that I think would stick, based on where we stand in the cycle.
Chart 3. A big straight move up, with Ethereum hitting the $4096 level and BTC, breaking out from the prior all-time high of March of last year. Source: Paid Content by bitcoin.live Chart by TradingView
BTC DOMINANCE (BTC.D) CHART
Looking at the chart, there’s a good drop that is basically telling us that the dominance has peaked for the cycle. This is my view, now after hitting 61%. Everyone wants to make more money in the bull market, so they’re rotating and that’s also part of why you’re seeing some little bit of a stall right now in Bitcoin dominance.
Capital flowing out of Bitcoin into the altcoins, looking like altcoins are beginning to outperform Bitcoin. Now you’ll probably see sharp rebounds, after the peak of BTC in the cycle.
Altcoins are making the big portion of the move in the last five weeks and that’s where you will see that dominance rotate. Don’t forget, any time altcoins are on the ride like this, we’re likely going to see some massive volatility. We’re probably going to see a good 10-15% pullback, then a breakout that will lead to a big move in the last phase of the cycle.
Don’t be too speculative into the micro or mid-caps, I think in general, a good sort of allocation of the trending altcoins will be most ideal. Again, don’t flip around too much, just be content with the rising market.
Chart 4. A good drop that is basically telling us that the dominance has peaked for the cycle. Source: bitcoin.live , Chart by TradingView
