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Bitcoin 4 Year Journey – 04.03.2021

This analysis covers where we stand in the 4-year cycle, as the 4-Year Cycle is really beginning to pay dividends from our hodl & trading positions. When you look at the monthly & quarterly charts, what we see, is a beautiful cycle structure right there, affirming that, we need not to lose our position in this bull market.

In January 2021, BTC was around $32k and I did mentioned that, we’re in for another 25%-30% decline. So many cryptocurrency enthusiasts came up with a contrary opinion that, the institutional investors would not allow such to happen but it did happen in the early-to-middle January and middle February and  that shook out quite a number of leverage players. We have had this pull back twice in a matter of two months.

The 30% decline will always happen, it’s always in Bitcoin volatility profile. Volatility will only increase as we get higher in market caps and that’s part of the expectations we need to have and how we approach position as we go about our goals.

What’s going on in your Head? – Our mindset

As BTC journeys up there, we’re going to see decline in thousands of dollars and we need to prepare our mindset for this from our HODL or trading stand point. It’s normal in a bull market of this size.

If you’re investing for a long time frame of 2-4 years, you shouldn’t be worried about hourly chart, daily or weekly charts but you look at the time frame that compliments the time frame of your investment. This takes away the fear of the day-to-day swinging of the trade. For example, looking at the BTC monthly chart, you will not see those 25%-30% decline that took place in a matter of few days; taking away worries you may have.

Fig.1.Bitcoin: Monthly chart showing six green candles without showing those declines: good for long term investment.
Source: Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at bitcoin.live

Also, the quarterly chart takes away all the noise about the 30% decline seen in the daily or weekly charts. The chart is now telling us, we now getting into the final stretch of the 4-year cycle. We have exceeded all the all-time highs, above the 10-quarterly MA and heading up to the top.

Fig.2. Bitcoin: The quarterly chart showing the final stretch of the 4-year cycle. Source: bitcoin.live

Super or Hype cycle

What we have now, is a bias narrative based on what is happening in the market. Narrative changes quickly in a bull market. The super or hype cycle is still open and we will get a 10x price up the peak and after that, a decline of about 50% will take place.

Institutional phase

Institutional phase changes any market of $100-300 billion cap. You can’t sustain such market volume with individual investors and pop enthusiasts. You need some more serious capital and wide spread attentions.

The last bull market was a technical enabler of unbundling of institutional funds and flows of institutional platforms such as MicroStrategy, GrayScales, and Tesla into the space. There would be more to come. That’s what fuels and drives the bull market. It’s part of the narrative of 4-year cycle. They don’t believe what you believe from the grass-root stand point and what matters to them is their capital, not the asset. So Institutional phase is inevitable.

COVID –Bonds-$USD-Inflation- Stock Crash

COVID is coming back, bond rates going up, $USD and stock are crashing while inflation on the rise –  All these were short-term drivers last year. They still pose risk but in a short time frame. BTC is in a search of finding its intrinsic value and will never be affected so much by all of these, especially from a long term position.

Selling – getting out  

We saw 30% decline in January and 25% decline in February; theset are a short term sentiment drops that need to keep the bull market healthy. This short term declines keep the bull market in shape. Be prepared for the next move and never induce the 4-year cycle. So, total selling-out from the 4-year cycle stand point is taking money off the table. One shouldn’t make a poor decision in doing so.  You need to take some off the table at the top price and wait for the next cycle top. That is.. Simple!

🔴This Market Update is created using Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at Bitcoin.live. Peter Brendt is a Trader since 1975. Author and publisher of the Factor Report as well as Best Selling Trading Books. If you want to read full content by him and his partners, trading signals/calls in real time, daily/weekly/monthly reports, trading videos and podcasts, trading tips check out his VIP Subscription Service


🔴This Market Update is created using Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at Bitcoin.live. Peter Brendt is a Trader since 1975. Author and publisher of the Factor Report as well as Best Selling Trading Books. If you want to read full content by him and his partners, trading signals/calls in real time, daily/weekly/monthly reports, trading videos and podcasts, trading tips check out his VIP Subscription Service