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Crypto Market Analysis/Ideas/Signals – 15.04.2022

Bitcoin and Ethereum ANALYSIS

The crypto market is still in a correction mode, with BTC largely stuck in the range of $39.5k and $41.3k in the last 48 hours. Bitcoin is holding up relatively well from dropping significantly; a development that puts the bulls in a favorable position.
I’m not interested of becoming short term bullish until we get over the hurdle of 200-day moving average -$48k level. This key resistance has proven over time to be the gateway for a right translated cycle.
There are times when the markets could be choppy, where the price action is not telling us which way to go. That is not a good trading time as I encourage you to be as passive as possible to protect your capital.
From the long-term point of view, nothing to worry about. It’s all about how we approach the market and the discipline we put in to meet our expectation(s).

The BTC daily chart shows the bears engulfing to take control, but demand holding the range-bound consolidation at $39.5k and 42.5k and keeping the market supported.
We’re in day-29 of the 60-day cycle and very close to mid-cycle low. The mid-cycle low will determine the direction of the market and there’s a 50 % chance that the uptrend may resume after the mid-cycle low.

Maybe we may have a little pull back to complete the mid-cycle low and then a reversal. We want to see good rallies coming out of the mid-cycle, otherwise the pull of the 4-year cycle low towards the end of the year will begin to take hold.
Let’s hope to see a short-term bounce to as high as $47k to prepare it for the next hurdle at 200-day SMA.

Chart 1: The price action is trapped in the range where it could either rally up or pull back significantly.
Source: Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

The BTC weekly chart has held the lower boundary of the channel nicely, which might trigger a resurgence. I will review my spot position, should this lower boundary channel be violated.
For now, we’re still trending above the downtrend channel, with upside target at $45,850(Feb. High) still possible in the coming days. A close above the February high, especially if it occurs on expanding volume, would be very impressive.
On the contrary, further drop to the support line of the channel will put more selling pressure to the bull market. Already we have the daily trend model turned from UP to NEUTRAL; a development that needs to be reverted ASAP.
What the price action needs now is a catalyst (trending above all MAs), a likely case that will end the sideway consolidation in the mid-term up to May time frame.

Chart 2: The price action has held the lower boundary of the channel well, which might trigger a resurgence.
Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

Ethereum
Better than Bitcoin, it hasn’t retraced much. It’s not fading too much that’s why I still have confidence in Ethereum. As long as it holds the 10-day MA, I’m ok with it.
Ethereum does not need further drop in-other to brighten the chances of getting back to the rising portion of the cycle that may take the price to another ATH.
Looking at this chart, it seems as if we are on the precipice of a bigger move, as we are at an inflection point. If the price could break above $3250 resistance level, with more momentum, the next target would be the $3500 resistance key level. If we’re able to break above the barrier at $3500 level, getting to the $4000 level will be a lot easier.
On the other hand, if we break down below the candlestick from the Tuesday session, it is likely that Ethereum would go looking towards the $2750 level.

Chart 3: Ethereum is still holding the 10-day MA and haven’t retraced much.
Source: bitcoin.live , ETHUSD Chart by TradingView

Bitcoin and Alt SIGNALS and Trading Ideas or Comments

To summarize, Volume came in as expected and shorters got squeezed. Price now needs few levels. In the short term, BTC needs to close back above $42,250.
The obstacle for the longer-term chart is the 200-day resistance. Also, fuel for the bulls can be the long signal generated by the SmartMoney Algo on the daily (fully confirmed). Close above on the daily ($45850) and we can talk about $50k+.
Bulls need to be concerned about a BTC close below $39.5k.
I don’t think that BTC from first time will break this level so we will see at least pullback to 37k.
But if price falls lower 37k we can see 33-34k as support.
To be on the safe side, I recommend to put stop loss above $39,150.
So be ready for such scenario.

Chart 4: In the short term, BTC needs to close back above $42,250: Source: bitcoin.live , Chart by TradingView

Mid Term Market PROGNOSIS (1-2months)

$BTC Dominance – showing bearish divergence on the weekly chart, should be good for a $ALTs in the meantime.

Chart 5: BTC Dominance – showing bearish divergence on the weekly chart

Also USDT.D got rejected from the 4H supply and it is still moving down. I expect this to continue till May.

Chart 6: Source: USDT dominance got rejected from the 4h supply as predicted and it is still moving down

Idea 1: AVAX/USDT
$AVAX / USDT – Potential 69% Setup!  $AVAX is moving in an uptrend, pushing the $98 resistance level several times. The price is testing the MA100 on the daily timeframe. A “Rising Triangle” pattern has been formed on the chart

Chart 7: $AVAX / USDT (DAILY) CHART, moving in an uptrend.

Idea 2: EGLD/USDT
Ascending triangle EGLD/USDT on 30 min. The price has broken out, to retest the previous high.

Chart 8: Source:  Ascending triangle EGLD/USDT on 30 min.

Status of Crypto market in Mid Term (1-2 months)

BTC remains long on long term, slightly bearish on the mid- term.

🔴This Market Update is created using Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at Bitcoin.live. Peter Brendt is a Trader since 1975. Author and publisher of the Factor Report as well as Best Selling Trading Books. If you want to read full content by him and his partners, trading signals/calls in real time, daily/weekly/monthly reports, trading videos and podcasts, trading tips check out his VIP Subscription Service


🔴This Market Update is created using Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at Bitcoin.live. Peter Brendt is a Trader since 1975. Author and publisher of the Factor Report as well as Best Selling Trading Books. If you want to read full content by him and his partners, trading signals/calls in real time, daily/weekly/monthly reports, trading videos and podcasts, trading tips check out his VIP Subscription Service