Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis – 15.03.2022
The good news is that BTC hasn’t broken down, still holding. Getting close to that timing window for the next 60-day cycle. We’re in Day-51 of the 60-day cycle and any big move to the upside is not really expected soon, especially for the fact that, any attempt to get to the day-18 high failed in the past.
This is not a good trading environment as I encourage you to be as passive as possible to protect your capital. Bitcoin continues to be weak and as long as BTC is below 40k; it’s not a good risk-reward for short term.
Looking at the BTC daily chart we see a significant consolidation near the end of the 60-day cycle that didn’t get a clean break-down into the cycle low.
Bitcoin’s repeat visit to the sub-$40k range is re-enforcing a lengthy consolidation which could result to three scenarios. The first scenario is that, BTC could make a straight-jacket upward move that will lead to a right translated cycle. The second scenario is that; it could consolidate up to the initial support level of $34k before going upward. The third scenario is that; it could capitulate below the 60-day cycle low.
We need to have a plan for any possible scenarios of either moving to a right translated cycle or dropping down to a deeper cycle low.
Pic.1: Bitcoin’s repeat visit to the sub-$40k range is re-enforcing a lengthy consolidation.
Source: Paid Content by Peter Brendt and his partners at bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
The BTC weekly chart shows a move up to the trend channel that could form a bottom. This move could help in holding the range-bound consolidation to further resume the Bitcoin’s historic bull trend.
The price is itching closer to top of the 10-week MA which could propel the 4-year cycle up to a peak.
We want to see the lower range hold to avoid any further drop. A bull case will end the cycle low and form a right translated cycle. That will give us a confirmation that, a change trend is in place.
Ethereum
Ethereum is not in any way showing vibrancy as we see in BTC. Ethereum is still in a declining phase. I want to see more upside actions that could justify my long term position.
Just like BTC, I would like to hold my core position. I don’t mind if we get a clean drop up to $2100 to pick bottom for any upside.
We need to see the price action recover and move above the 10-day MA. This will give a clear intention of Ethereum breaking out of the downward channel.
Pic.3: The shows a cycle low that looks like, we’re not getting out soon.
Source: bitcoin.live , BTCUSD Chart by TradingView
